SEMINAR SERIES and COLLOQUIA

Forecasts of near-surface weather conditions are typically performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, statistics, human forecasters, or a combination of the three. These forecasting techniques have several limitations, including insufficient resolution, insufficient accuracy, and high cost.

The Uncoupled Surface Layer (USL) model was designed to predict near-surface temperature, humidity, and wind with unprecedented resolution and accuracy. By focusing entirely on the lowest 100 meters of the atmosphere, the USL model requires far less computing power than traditional NWP models. This allows it to produce operational forecasts at extremely high resolution (i.e., tens of meters).

By using a superior representation of land surface characteristics and near-surface physics, the USL model is able to predict near-surface temperature, humidity, and wind with substantially greater accuracy than traditional NWP models such as WRF. A verification study at 1596 observation sites reveals that the USL model also outperforms human forecasters.

Boundary Layer, Urban Meteorology, and Land-Surface Processes Seminar Series website

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