Convective Storms & NWP Seminar Series presents...
AIRS Data Assimilation into ARPS as a Tool for Improving Short-Range Convection-Resolving Numerical Weather Prediction
Nathan Dahl
Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)
The University of Oklahoma
07 November 2008, 2:00 PM
National Weather Center, Room 1350
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Norman, OK
Directions to the NWC (.pdf, 60 kb)
Remote sounding data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument suite aboard the Aqua satellite has recently been shown to improve the long-range (3-5 day) reliability of global forecasts. We seek to examine their impact of short-range (~ 24 hour) convection-resolving forecasts using the 01 March 2007 southeastern United States severe weather outbreak as a test case. AIRS sounding data is assimilated into the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) using both a Bratseth scheme (ADAS) and a 3-dimension variational scheme (3DVAR). While significant differences are noted between the forecasts using AIRS data and those not using AIRS data, particularly with regard to the near-surface moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico (a limiting factor on the forecasted severe weather potential for that day), the impact on the resulting initiation and evolution of simulated storms across the region 18-30 hours after initialization is unclear. Further simulations testing the impact on the forecast development of Hurricane Humberto (12-13 September 2007) are currently underway.